By: Amanda Porter
“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from [current levels] to at most 350ppm.”-Dr. James Hansen
The statement above, attributed to Dr. James Hansen, former head of Goddard Institute for Space Studies and world renowned climatologist is featured on the home page of the website “350.org” an advocacy group creating a grassroots movement to combat climate change. Over the past year or so there has been concern around the fact that we have passed Dr. James Hansen’s 350ppm (parts per million) and, as of last November, reached the scary carbon milestone of 400ppm. Just a few days ago it was reported that we surpassed the carbon dioxide threshold—permanently. This “safe” threshold outlined by policymakers, based on climate science, is a global benchmark that has serious consequences for the future of climate change including rising sea levels, rising global temperatures and extreme weather events (Kahn 2016). How did the global community let this happen? The notion of path dependency and especially the argument of increasing returns and the policy feedback theory may help to explain how we got to this dangerous tipping point in the earth’s history.
In the concept of path dependence outlined by Paul Pierson’s piece, “in an increasing returns process, the probability of further steps along the same path increases with each move down that path…the costs of exit—of switching to some previously plausible alternative—rise.” According to Pierson, the increasing returns processes can also be described as positive feedback processes (pg. 252). The mechanisms of increasing returns and the rising costs of exit is evident in the processes that have led to the historically high levels of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere. It seems a path was set in motion where the increasing returns (both economic and social) were too high to allow policy makers the ability to choose to exit in favor of more environmentally friendly alternatives. Since the industrial revolution, countries have relied on fossil fuels to dramatically increase the production of goods and to ultimately power their economies. In fact, the reliance on fossil fuels has permeated every aspect of “modern” life. From the invention of coal powered train lines to gas guzzling automobiles that allowed for urban sprawl and the creation of suburbia as we know it today, to the factories that mass produced goods enabling our current consumer culture; reliance on fossil fuels is now embedded in the fabric of our society.
One strength of the path dependency model is that it goes beyond economic and social well-being understandings of public policy effects to take into account the political and historical factors at play. In addition positive feedback theory, unlike many of the previous theories of public policy studies, has the potential to be utilized and tested empirically. If a researcher were to conduct an empirical study using climate change as a case study, they would be able to map the historical events both large (the dawn of the industrial revolution) and small (government subsidizing of solar panels). In addition, the case study could analyze major political decisions of both action and importantly inaction related to carbon emissions. Researchers could analyze how certain legislative decisions consequently reshaped current politics and set the world down the path that has resulted in today’s dangerous carbon levels, primarily through decisions that have allowed the entrenchment of and global reliance on fossil fuels and their related technology. The case of climate change is rich with aspects to frame through path dependency and test empirically. The fact that the climate debate includes the importance of special interest groups (like the oil companies and their lobbyists and grassroots movements like 350.org) and often is framed in terms of economic cost benefit arguments (made in reference to continuing reliance on oil versus making a switch to alternative energies) and reliance on scientific data makes it an interesting case to study at a interdisciplinary level. These issues just scratch the surface of the temporal links that the industrial revolution and consequent reliance on fossil fuels have had on current social groups and their ability to influence (or not) political capacities and goals around climate change and the path of no return.
Therefore, the policy feedback theory and increasing returns arguments can explain how and why we got to this place of destructive and perhaps irreversible carbon levels by analyzing the way policy, once created, reshapes the political world in various ways (Mettler and SoRelle, 176). However, policy feedback theory, as discussed in the readings, does not adequately describe when and how to intervene in order to change the course of path dependent policies that have been long embedded in our political, economic and social world.
Admittedly, I am not an expert in environment issues and climate change. However, some of my peers in class may have more insight and therefore may be better equipped to probe how, using the framework and empirical potential of the positive feedback theory, policymakers may be able to work towards reversing the dependence on fossil fuels, move towards alternative energy and perhaps eventually make a real effort at managing the effects of climate change. Alternatively, is there another model or framework that could better explain why we have gotten to this point in the climate change phenomena and how we can effectively make large scale policy changes around the issue?
On a separate but somewhat related point, there seems to be a rift in the literature between theories and methodologies put forth by sociologists versus political scientists and economists (Pierson, Munger). One of the first papers we read for class discussed the policy implications of scholars working in isolation—specifically pointing to the example of climate change and the scientific research and academic communities (Hoffman 2015). Can you discuss how a lack of interdisciplinary engagement can hinder progress in policy analysis?
Course Readings:
Hirschman, Albert O., Chapter 4: “An Expanding Sphere of Influence” in Rival Views of Market Society and Other Recent Essays, Harvard University Press, 1992.
Hoffman, Andrew J. “Isolated Scholars: Making Bricks, Not Shaping Policy” in The Chronicle of Higher Education. February 9, 2015.
Munger, Chapter 5: “Experts and ‘Advocacy’: The Limits of Policy Analysis.”
Pierson, Paul, “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics,” The American Political Science Review, 94(2), 2000.
Sabatier and Weible, Chapter 5: “Policy Feedback Theory,” by Suzanne Mettle and Mallory Sorelle.
Additional Sources:
Bill McKibbin. 350.org. https://350.org/how/. 2016
Kahn, Brian. “The World Passes 400ppm Carbon Dioxide Threshold. Permanently. September 28, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/28/the-world-passes-400ppm-carbon-dioxide-threshold-permanently
“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from [current levels] to at most 350ppm.”-Dr. James Hansen
The statement above, attributed to Dr. James Hansen, former head of Goddard Institute for Space Studies and world renowned climatologist is featured on the home page of the website “350.org” an advocacy group creating a grassroots movement to combat climate change. Over the past year or so there has been concern around the fact that we have passed Dr. James Hansen’s 350ppm (parts per million) and, as of last November, reached the scary carbon milestone of 400ppm. Just a few days ago it was reported that we surpassed the carbon dioxide threshold—permanently. This “safe” threshold outlined by policymakers, based on climate science, is a global benchmark that has serious consequences for the future of climate change including rising sea levels, rising global temperatures and extreme weather events (Kahn 2016). How did the global community let this happen? The notion of path dependency and especially the argument of increasing returns and the policy feedback theory may help to explain how we got to this dangerous tipping point in the earth’s history.
In the concept of path dependence outlined by Paul Pierson’s piece, “in an increasing returns process, the probability of further steps along the same path increases with each move down that path…the costs of exit—of switching to some previously plausible alternative—rise.” According to Pierson, the increasing returns processes can also be described as positive feedback processes (pg. 252). The mechanisms of increasing returns and the rising costs of exit is evident in the processes that have led to the historically high levels of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere. It seems a path was set in motion where the increasing returns (both economic and social) were too high to allow policy makers the ability to choose to exit in favor of more environmentally friendly alternatives. Since the industrial revolution, countries have relied on fossil fuels to dramatically increase the production of goods and to ultimately power their economies. In fact, the reliance on fossil fuels has permeated every aspect of “modern” life. From the invention of coal powered train lines to gas guzzling automobiles that allowed for urban sprawl and the creation of suburbia as we know it today, to the factories that mass produced goods enabling our current consumer culture; reliance on fossil fuels is now embedded in the fabric of our society.
One strength of the path dependency model is that it goes beyond economic and social well-being understandings of public policy effects to take into account the political and historical factors at play. In addition positive feedback theory, unlike many of the previous theories of public policy studies, has the potential to be utilized and tested empirically. If a researcher were to conduct an empirical study using climate change as a case study, they would be able to map the historical events both large (the dawn of the industrial revolution) and small (government subsidizing of solar panels). In addition, the case study could analyze major political decisions of both action and importantly inaction related to carbon emissions. Researchers could analyze how certain legislative decisions consequently reshaped current politics and set the world down the path that has resulted in today’s dangerous carbon levels, primarily through decisions that have allowed the entrenchment of and global reliance on fossil fuels and their related technology. The case of climate change is rich with aspects to frame through path dependency and test empirically. The fact that the climate debate includes the importance of special interest groups (like the oil companies and their lobbyists and grassroots movements like 350.org) and often is framed in terms of economic cost benefit arguments (made in reference to continuing reliance on oil versus making a switch to alternative energies) and reliance on scientific data makes it an interesting case to study at a interdisciplinary level. These issues just scratch the surface of the temporal links that the industrial revolution and consequent reliance on fossil fuels have had on current social groups and their ability to influence (or not) political capacities and goals around climate change and the path of no return.
Therefore, the policy feedback theory and increasing returns arguments can explain how and why we got to this place of destructive and perhaps irreversible carbon levels by analyzing the way policy, once created, reshapes the political world in various ways (Mettler and SoRelle, 176). However, policy feedback theory, as discussed in the readings, does not adequately describe when and how to intervene in order to change the course of path dependent policies that have been long embedded in our political, economic and social world.
Admittedly, I am not an expert in environment issues and climate change. However, some of my peers in class may have more insight and therefore may be better equipped to probe how, using the framework and empirical potential of the positive feedback theory, policymakers may be able to work towards reversing the dependence on fossil fuels, move towards alternative energy and perhaps eventually make a real effort at managing the effects of climate change. Alternatively, is there another model or framework that could better explain why we have gotten to this point in the climate change phenomena and how we can effectively make large scale policy changes around the issue?
On a separate but somewhat related point, there seems to be a rift in the literature between theories and methodologies put forth by sociologists versus political scientists and economists (Pierson, Munger). One of the first papers we read for class discussed the policy implications of scholars working in isolation—specifically pointing to the example of climate change and the scientific research and academic communities (Hoffman 2015). Can you discuss how a lack of interdisciplinary engagement can hinder progress in policy analysis?
Course Readings:
Hirschman, Albert O., Chapter 4: “An Expanding Sphere of Influence” in Rival Views of Market Society and Other Recent Essays, Harvard University Press, 1992.
Hoffman, Andrew J. “Isolated Scholars: Making Bricks, Not Shaping Policy” in The Chronicle of Higher Education. February 9, 2015.
Munger, Chapter 5: “Experts and ‘Advocacy’: The Limits of Policy Analysis.”
Pierson, Paul, “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics,” The American Political Science Review, 94(2), 2000.
Sabatier and Weible, Chapter 5: “Policy Feedback Theory,” by Suzanne Mettle and Mallory Sorelle.
Additional Sources:
Bill McKibbin. 350.org. https://350.org/how/. 2016
Kahn, Brian. “The World Passes 400ppm Carbon Dioxide Threshold. Permanently. September 28, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/28/the-world-passes-400ppm-carbon-dioxide-threshold-permanently